Monday, April 20, 2009

ETF

Consider an ETF as a company stock that invests in certain things - like in S&P500 index, shorting of S&P100, fixed income of anything like emerging markets, gold, even in something as specific as homeland security. In essence, they can invest in anything and can work with either up or down market.

If you are investing more than $5000, ETFs are better than mutual funds due to cost savings. However, there are usually transaction fees (every time you buy more shares or sell shares). Find brokerage firm or a bank that charges low fee (based on your total investment with them) or NO FEE.

Tips

Find the right brokerage/bank with very low or no fee if you maintain balance.

Invest your retirement money in ETFs.

Resources

ETF Browser from Yahoo
Filter by "bear market" to see short and ultra-short ETFs

Brian T Mikes - Dynamic Wealth Report

Weekly Top 10 ETF Rankings from Trader Planet

ETFs 60 seconds guide from Fool

ETFGuide.com

ETF Investing Guide from Seeking Alpha

VIX

http://marketsci.wordpress.com/2008/09/22/test-of-condor%E2%80%99s-vix-based-trading-strategy/

http://trading-stock-market.blogspot.com/2008/03/vix.html

http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/stocks/commentary/editorial/-68023.cfm

http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/2007/07/tradingmarkets-5-vix-rule.html

http://seekingalpha.com/article/105643-trading-strategy-vix-spread-and-the-stock-market

*** http://www.smallcapnetwork.com/scb/how-i-use-the-vix-to-trade-stocks/2274/

http://wallstreetblips.dailyradar.com/story/trading_strategy_the_vix_spread_and_the_stock_market/

http://www.ibankcoin.com/woodshedderblog/index.php/2008/09/15/stretched-vix-strategy-signals-buy-the-spy/

Thursday, April 16, 2009

My Investment-related Links

Sector Options
http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/Micro.aspx?id=phlxsectorindexoptions
http://www.optionsmentoring.com/stockoptions/Trading_a_Sector_Option_103.shtml

Market Sector Indices (may or may not have options)
http://quotes.nasdaq.com/aspx/sectorindices.aspx

Options on ETFs and HOLDRS
http://www.cboe.com/Products/optionsOnETFs.aspx

iShares ETFs
http://us.ishares.com/home.htm?c=JAC01&gclid=CMSZivqA9pkCFeRM5Qodsl2tSA

The Options Insider
http://www.theoptionsinsider.com/unusualactivity/?id=1739

Learn Options tips - http://www.theoptionsinsider.com/tradingtechnology/

Learn options from OptionPlanet (associated with TOS)
http://www.optionplanet.com/assembled/list.html

Learning about stocks, options, forex (Learning Markets)

Premarket (8 - 9:30) and afterhours (4 - 6:30) (simple course)
Only stocks can be traded, but no options or any derivatives?

Interesting statistical finds on market

Earnings Announcements

http://www.cqa.org/uploads/papers/1287938062443d2a80c3515.ppt#298,22,Abnormal

There are abnormal order flows around announcement dates but most of these are by small traders (<$5000 per trade?).

Small buys go way up on announcement days. Institutions buy BEFORE announcement days, expecting buying pressure (to partially arbitrage). These buying pressures are from small investors. Buying pressures mean prices go up.

There is a BIG earnings announcement premium (observed by: earnings announcements correlated with higher volumes and higher volumes lead to higher premiums)

Sam: is reverse true of selling pressure? No doubt!

Whoa Market!

So how does a company refinance its maturing debt by going to the credit market?

Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Basics of Various Options Strategies

Straddles and Strangles

http://www.finotec.com/options/straddle-strangle-strategy.php

TOS Commission Rates

https://www.thinkorswim.com/tos/displayFaq.tos

What are thinkorswim's commission rates?

For Stock orders, you have the choice of 'Per Share Commission' at $.015 per share ($5.00 minimum) OR 'Flat Fee Trading' at $9.95 per trade (market or limit orders; 5,000 shares maximum). For Option orders, you pay the lesser of $2.95 per contract OR $1.50 per contract plus $9.95 (only one $9.95 charge for unlimited spread legs). For Futures orders, you pay $3.50 per mini contract (inclusive of exchange fees).

Commissions on option spreads

If the trade was entered as a spread, there is only one $10 ticket charge regardless of the number of legs associated with that spread, or $2.95 per contract if that's less.

TOS Margin Requirements on EQUITIES and EQUITY OPTIONS, Margin Schedule

https://www.thinkorswim.com/tos/displayFaq.tos

What is a pattern day trader?

Effective September 28th, 2001 the NYSE and NASD imposed a $25,000 minimum equity requirement for 'pattern day traders.' Consistent with the new margin rules, if a thinkorswim customer's margin account falls under $25,000 and the customer has opened and closed positions on the same day four times within five days, the customer will not be allowed to open new positions until the $25,000 requirement is restored.
Additionally, for a designated 'pattern day trader' account, the customer is allowed on any day to open new positions up to a total of the account's Day Trading Buying Power (defined as four times account equity less maintenance margin requirements). The rule requires orders exceeding Day Trading Buying Power to be rejected.

Margin Requirements

What are your margin requirements for equities and equity options?

Please see our margin requirements in the MARGIN SCHEDULE in the RATES section. Generally speaking, our margin requirements for equities and equity options conform to NASD requirements.

How do I calculate the margin on a short call or short put?

To learn how to calculate the margin requirement of a short call or short put, see our margin schedule.

Margin Schedule

Options: Exercise and Assignment

https://www.thinkorswim.com/tos/displayFaq.tos?categoryKey=TRADING

How do I exercise an option contract prior to expiration?

If you trade options, it's imperative that you understand the basics of exercise and assignment. You don't need to know all the theoretical details, but you must be prepared for it, especially if you're short options where you don't control the exercise feature. Learn more in the "Exercise and Assignment, Early or Otherwise" section of the Option School section of our website. Remember that clients are required to submit an electronic exercise advice by 3:20 pm CST.

How do I know that I have been assigned on a short option?

If you are short any options that are in the money you should check your account daily to see if you have been assigned. In the case of early assignment (assignment prior to expiration) we will make every attempt to reach you prior to the opening of the market on the day we receive the exercise notice on your behalf, but you still need to maintain the habit of checking your account personally.
At expiration, any equity option that is .01 of a point or more in the money will be automatically assigned. In addition, in the money cash-settled options are exercised on the holder's behalf. There is too much volume on expiration to contact each person individually, so you need to check your accounts on the TOS system on Monday morning after expiration to see where you stand. In any case, our clearing firm will send you a confirmation showing your purchase or sale of stock on an exercise.

Please explain automatic exercise at expiration.

Equity options that are in-the-money by .01 of a point or more by the close of trading on the Friday before expiration are automatically exercised. Clients who wish to exercise options that are in-the-money by less than .01 of a point must notify us electronically via the exercise page by 3:20 pm CST.

TOS Order Types

https://www.thinkorswim.com/tos/displayFaq.tos?categoryKey=TRADING

***
https://www.thinkorswim.com/tos/displayPage.tos?webpage=servicesOrderTypes

What types of orders does thinkorswim accept?

For all listed products, the thinkorswim software accepts

market
limit
stop
MOC - Market On Close
LOC - Limit On Close
trailing stop (read disclaimer below)
stop limit
conditional
OCO - One Cancels Other (read disclaimer below)

For option spreads, the thinkorswim software accepts

limit
conditional
OCO (read disclaimer below)
market


Through our trade desk, we accept ANY order type imaginable.

All orders, except for option spread orders, are executed electronically. Option spreads are executed via open outcry because none of the five option exchanges currently support electronic spread execution. All trade executions and confirmations will be delivered electronically back to the trading application.

Order Type Explained

LIMIT - default order type for all single option, spread and stock orders. The limit price for buy orders is placed below the current market price. The limit price for sell orders is placed above the current market price. Limit orders will be filled at the limit price or better, but are not guaranteed a fill.

MARKET (also known as "not held") - order used to guarantee an execution, but not guarantee a price or time of execution. The risk of market orders is that you have no control over what the execution price is. We strongly suggest you avoid using them with options, especially option spreads.

STOP (also known as "stop loss") - order used to open or close a position by buying if the market rises or selling if the market falls. The stop price for buy orders is placed above the current market price. The stop price for sell orders is placed below the current market price. A stop order turns into a market order when the stop is triggered, so the final execution price or time of a stop order is not guaranteed. The same risks of market orders apply to stop orders.

In addition to the Standard STOP order which is sent to the exchange, we have created 3 new STOP order types. The "Mark" stop order will be triggered once the Mark or value of the asset reaches or surpasses your stop price. The "Bid" stop order will be triggered once the bid of an asset rises to your stop price or surpasses it (this can be used for a Buy Stop order). The "Ask" stop order will be triggered if the ask price falls to your stop price or surpasses it (this can be used for a Sell Stop order).

STOP LIMIT - order used to open or close a position by buying if the market rises or selling if the market falls, but that turns into a limit order when the stop price is triggered. Stop limit orders have a stop price and a limit price. When the stop price is triggered, the limit order is activated. The stop price for buy orders is placed above the current market price. The stop price for sell orders is placed below the current market price. The stop price does not need to be the same as the limit price. Just as with a limit order, the stop limit order will be filled at the limit price or better, but may not be filled at all.

[Combining Stop and TrailingStop is a good strategy]
TRAILING STOP - stop order that continually adjusts the stop price based on changes in the market price. A trailing stop to sell raises the stop price as the market price increases, but does not lower the stop price when the market price decreases. A trailing stop to buy lowers the stop price as the market price decreases, but does not increase the stop price as the market price increases. In both cases, the stop "trails" the market price. When the stop price is reached, the order becomes a market order. The same risk of market orders applies to trailing stops.

[Combining StopLimit and TrailingStopLimit is a good strategy]
TRAILING STOPLIMIT - this order type works the same way as the trailing stop, only instead of a market order being sent to the exchange, a limit order will be sent to the exchange. With this order, you will be able to stipulate the worst price you are willing to accept for a fill. There is no guarantee that you will be filled, though, as the price may gap through your limit price.

MOC (Market on Close) - order that buys or sells at the market price at the close of trading. You must submit the order by 2:40 pm CT. The same risk of market orders applies to MOC orders.

LOC (Limit on Close) - order that buys or sells at a limit price at the close of trading. You must submit the order by 2:40 pm CT. The order can be filled at the limit price or better, but is not guaranteed a fill.


How do OCO orders work?

OCO orders (one cancels other) are orders that work simultaneously and cause a cancel to be sent when one of them fills. OCO Disclaimer: There is no guarantee that the cancel can be sent in time to prevent the second order from filling, leaving you with executions on both orders. It is especially important not to place an OCO order where both component orders are close to the market.

[Combining Stop (StopLimit) and TrailingStop (TrailingStopLimit) is a good strategy]
Trailing stop disclaimer:

thinkorswim does not recommend trailing stop orders, as there is no guarantee that your order will be filled at or near the designated stop price, which is especially dangerous in rapidly rising or falling markets. In addition, trailing stop orders will accentuate volatility in rough markets.

A trailing stop allows you to specify a limit on the maximum possible loss, without setting a limit on the maximum possible gain. A trailing stop SELL (BUY) order is an order where the stop price is set at some fixed amount away from the asset's bid (ask). If the market price rises (falls), the stop loss price also rises (falls) by this fixed amount. If the stock price falls (rises), the stop price remains the same. When the market moves against the position by the set amount, the stop order is triggered, and is submitted as a market order.

For example, XYZ shows a price of 50.00. A customer puts in a trailing stop order to sell at $1.00 below the current bid. A stop order is entered into the system for $49.00. When the bid price rises to $52.00, the stop order price rises to $51.00. When the bid price drops to $51.50, the stop order price remains at $51.00. When the ask price drops to $51.00, the stop order is triggered and submitted as a market order.

NOTE: The market order resulting from a triggered trailing stop order is not guaranteed to execute at any specific price. A trailing stop sell order becomes a market order when the last traded price is less than or equal to the stop price or if the ask price is less than or equal to the stop price (which is determined by the highest bid price after the tralstop is entered.) Trailing stop sell orders for Nasdaq stocks and US equity options are only triggered after two ask prices are less than or equal to the stop price.

A trailing stop buy order becomes a market order when the last traded price is greater than or equal to the stop price (which is set at a specified differential above the lowest offer). Trailing stop buy orders for Nasdaq stocks and US equity options are only triggered after two bid prices are greater than or equal to the stop price. For US equities markets, stop orders will only be elected by prices posted during normal NYSE trading hours.

Thursday, April 9, 2009

My Trading Strategies

My Trading Strategies

combine stop with a trailing stop

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/08/trailing-stop-loss.asp

One of the best ways to maximize the benefits of a trailing stop and a traditional stop loss is to combine them. Yes, you can use both, but it is important to note that initially the trailing stop should be deeper than your regular stop loss. An example of this concept is to have a stop loss set at 2% and the trailing stop at 2.5% so that you are able to trail a stock's price movements without getting stopped early in the game and allowing for some price fluctuation as the stock finds support and momentum. Be sure to cancel your original stop loss when the trailing stop surpasses it.








make use of margin
how?


My Market Info Strategies

trade earnings announcements:
ST price movement depends not on the actual value of the earnings but on expected/actual difference, actual vs sector benchmark, price momentum, support n resistance on chart.

EPS can be GAAP or non-GAAP and most companies announce both. Make sure when you compare estimate vs. actual, you are using either GAAP or non-GAAP on both (TOS software seems to go for non GAAP while Bloomberg does GAAP)

earnings calendar from bloomberg

What is the best source of real-time financial market news as it happens? Check out these and compare: tradethenews, eSignal's RealTimeTraders Pro Newswire

Spread between nasdaq and DOW/S&P

There seems to be a consistent spread between dow and nasdaq indices although they are correlated. How to take advantage of this spread? profit when (1) nasdaq>dow (2) nasdaq<dow or (3) as long as there is the spread.

Strategies

before mkt open, look for companies that made earnings announcements after last close.
a. place a limit BUY order on option with a large LIMIT if you think the underlyer is hot (is there a better one, maybe traillimit or trailstop on BUY?). Can do before the mkt opens.
b. after the BUY goes thru, immediately place a trailingstop (or combine it with a stop).

professional traders sometimes sell shares just before earnings announcements (they made money already and don't want to be exposed to volatility caused after earnings announcement) which can cause momentary price drop. can we take advantage of this?

many companies announce earnings and other financial data during off market hours so there could be a good opportunity to trade during premarket 8-9:30 or after hours 4-6:30. however, only stocks are allowed. what's a strategy here whereby you take advantage of earnings news and buy/sell stocks, at the same time enter options orders to kick in when mkt opens?

many websites and trading apps (like TOS) show earning calendars but how to search on the blue chip companies only? you may have to do this manually i.e. create a list of blue chip companies with announcement dates. know that companies are not required to honor their announcement dates. right after the announcement, i think you can make money by taking an appropriate position (call or put) and putting in another trailstop immediately.

pre-market and after hours trading
look at TOS Times and Sales under "gadgets" to see what prices stocks are trading on various ecns after hours or before mkt open. may be able to assess buy/sell pressures from this info and create appropriate trades right when mkt opens. sam: my idea is that only the pros trade in off hours and mkt open usually follows the price movement in the off hours.

NASDAQ-100 Pre-Market Heatmap

adopt contrarian techniques
http://biz.yahoo.com/etfguide/090417/241_id.html?.&.pf=retirement


My Options Strategies

small but sure intra-day profit on OEX

Look at where the market is going. When you detect a turnaround, quickly take that position and buy (call or put, depending on what direction the turnaround is occurring). Wait to see if your hunch was right.
(A) If Y, do 2 things. (1) set an alert for floor (so that u might wanna sell and mimimize loss) and (2) set an alert for ceiling (so that u can go back and comfortably make a trailstop order). Alternatively, without the alert, you can create an actual stop loss order for (1). Alert(1) gives you the last-minute choice to hold off on selling if you think your position is going to turn around, but don't wait too long. If it is not turning around, your hunch was not right so make another trade outlined in (B).

(B) If N (you hunch was not right), do 2 things. (1) create another order in the direction the market is moving against your original hunch i.e. buy call or put, opposite to your first order. [Don't be so concerned about this second trade because it is almost impossible to lose money on both trades since they are opposite and you will be close to break-even at the worst.] (2) Monitor both of your positions. You are relatively safe. Your piority now should be to minimize loss and to even make some profit but that may not occur intra-day, especially if the market is only moving sideways. So at this point, when you have 2 opposite positions, you want to extend your closing out to another day ot two, whenever the market moves drastically (and they have been generally speaking, especially when it opens). The only caveat is that, if you are only 1 or 2 days away from expiration, the time value decays much faster so the market has to move that much more drastically to break even with 2 positions over 2/3 days. When one trade moves enough that, if you were to close out BOTH positions you would break even, (1) close out the trade that is of a lower value (the one currently moving against market) and (2) immediately create a stop loss or trail stop on the other.

Hopefully you will make profit with (A). If not, at worst, you will break even with (A) and (B). Example, I bot OEX 395 may call (month away from exp) at $14.2 sometime after 10AM when the market was turning around from negative open to when it was just hitting the positive side. I then set a floor alert at BID=$13.9 (looking back this should have been $13.4 to confidently assert the market was moving against me but oh well i lucked out here) and ceiling alert at BID=$15.2. I then got the ceiling alert (whoa lucky me!) after a few minutes (asserting my hunch of turnaround was right) at which point I created a trailstop at -.30 (meaning MKT-.30 most probably with TOS since they don't give you the option to specify MKT-.30, BID-.30 or ASK-.30) when BID=$15.2 and ASK=$15.60 or something (ignore the LAST which was still at $14.2). This tells me MKT was somewhere between $15.2 - $15.6. Anyways the trailstop got triggered and the position was sold at $15.50.

I was comfortable enough to shell out $1300 to $1600 for this one contract and to make about $100-$150 profit like this. I do think this strategy is relatively safe. I should aim to make $500 intra-day profit by either (1) shelling out $5000-$6000 i.e buy 5 contracts or (2) run this strategy multiple times a day (especially when you can afford to watch market turn around on a big piece of news).

I also think this strategy is better than trading a spread because with spread, you are essentially trading both (A) and (B) simultaneously while saving on commission. With this strategy, on the upside, you could potentially make a lot more gain with (A) without (B), while on the downside, you pay an extra commission to take the same position as the spread. I think that extra commission, being the cost of this strategy over the spread strategy, is well worth it.

when to place the 1st (A) trade? (1) right at mkt open - if the previous close was really up or down, then assume mkt open is turning around (2) after mkt open - give 15 mins or so whenever mkt begins to take a turn (may or may not happen though) (3) near the mkt close - if the mkt is moderately higher/lower to much higher/lower, assume the next morning's open will turn around so make the trade at/near mkt close in the opposite direction (4) when a piece of news during mkt seems to break the market trend - usually happens fast, make the trade right away.

On DJX (1/100 of DJIA)

Applies to any any index option: wait until u see a trend (not at the bell or before, give some time to settle). jump in and set a stop. hopefully stop won't trigger. assuming so, create a new TS order with a fairly wide gap (where if stop does trigger on this order, be prapared for a small loss. on the upside, the wide gap shields u from small hiccups and hopefully puts you in a profitable path). then replace the TS with a new one as time goes by, locking in some profit. ** if ur at almost the end of day, n u find that makrket is moving against u, don't make the trail stop kick in yet i.e. make the gap even wider if u can (as long as u can take that extra loss in the worst case scenario). the idea is that, hopefully stop does not trigger and the order remains active at the next open. that's when u may see market swinging back in ur favor (on average, if mkt goes up big on a day, next day it sheds some and vice-versa) or at the worst case, u will lose that extra money u r ok with loosing.

Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Let's character-assasin Dennis Miller...

Dennis Miller was one of the most intellectually wry observers of cultural and political attitude in this country as of only a few years ago. Now he's turned into a war-mongering Bush-loving right wing sycophant. He appears on O'Reilly's show occasionally as Mr. Reilly's towel boy. What a shame!

Wednesday, April 1, 2009

Buying home

http://www.crpboston.com/news.php#52

So you think you’re ready to start your search for a new home? Often buyers begin their search by visiting open houses and that is a very good way to begin the process. But, don't waste time visiting properties that are priced out of your budget. Not only will you spend time looking at a home you can't afford but you'll start feeling there's nothing you like in your price range. Instead, start by looking at properties priced BELOW what you can afford and work your way up the price ladder. You be surprised to find just what you're looking for at a price you can afford.With the tightening of the mortgage market, lenders have become much more careful about the borrower's ability to pay the monthly mortgage. Gone are the days of \"Sure you can afford it - it's only going to go up\" and \"We're happy to lend you the money!. In the reality of today's marketplace, lenders are much more diligent about how they lend and to whom.With this in mind, tip # 1 is: SPEAK WITH A MORTGAGE BROKER OR A REPUTABLE LENDER before staring your search to learn based on your personal financial dynamics, exactly what you can afford. Armed with this information, you'll not waste your time looking at properties you'll never be able to buy.An extremely valuable tool in this regard is Chase Manhattan's \"Passport To Purchase Program\" offered by Otis & Ahearn. Chase will provide you with a pre-approval letter (no commitment to borrow from them is required) and will lock your mortgage rate for 90 days. If the rate you've locked goes down, so does your rate. Tip number #2 is: GET A PRE-APPROVAL LETTER for the amount your lender says you can afford. There's a big difference between a Pre-qualification letter and a Pre-approval letter. Pre-qualification means that you've spoken with a lender and they feel that because you're still breathing and are employed you should have no problem qualifying for a loan. Pre-approval means that you have actually taken the time to apply for a mortgage with a lender and that lender has agreed to lend you a certain amount of money provided specific conditions are met. For example you still have to be alive at the closing, still employed and there can be no significant changes in your credit since you were Pre-approved. There may be more contingencies to the lender giving you the loan but you get the point.Tip #3 is:KNOW WHERE YOU STAND. Knowledge equals power. Knowing how much of a loan you can get, at what rate of interest and what your monthly payments will be and having the Pre-approval arrow in your quiver, you are now in a position to know in what price range you can search for your home. That knowledge helps you and/or your Broker help you find the right property and puts you in the position of being able to tell a Seller \"Yes, I can get the money for this property!\" It also eliminates the frustration of falling in love with a property only to discover there's no way you can get a mortgage to buy it.Tip #4 is:Know what's happening in the price range and neighborhoods in which you have interest. I provide my clients with three year historical sales information in their neighborhoods of choice. This data lets you see what is actually happening, good or bad, in any area of the city, no matter what the press is saying. Let me know if you would like to see a sample report – I call them ZoomsIn© Reports because they zoom in to real estate activity in specific Boston neighborhoods.